WAR MONITOR

Geopolitical Sentinel v2.0 — 2026-03-29 09:07 ET
-52.8
GEOPOLITICAL SENTIMENT INDEX

QUADRANT

Q2 SYSTEMIC CRISIS

系统性危机 — OVX+VIX同步共振向上,防御为先

MARKET DATA

96.63999938964844
OVX
31.049999237060547
VIX
$105.31999969482422
Brent
$4524.2998046875
Gold

GSI SUB-INDICES

Executive
-15.0
Congressional
+0.0
Market
-85.0
Polymarket
-76.1
Divergence 85.0

CEASEFIRE PROBABILITY

30-Day23.2%
60-Day33.2%
Year-End52.7%

DALIO STAGE 6

Substage: ACTIVE_COMBAT_ESCALATING
Trajectory: ESCALATION
Active: W1_TRADE_ECONOMIC, W2_TECH_WAR, W4_GEOPOLITICAL, W5_MILITARY_HOT_WAR

ANOMALIES

EXEC_vs_MARKET: Executive more dovish (-15) vs Market more hawkish (-85)
EXEC_vs_POLYMARKET: Executive more dovish (-15) vs Polymarket more hawkish (-76)
CONGRESS_vs_MARKET: Congressional more dovish (+0) vs Market more hawkish (-85)
TIER1_REVERSAL: Tier 1 signal reversal detected: recent=HAWK, prior=NEUTRAL→NEUTRAL

TOP STATEMENTS

#1 Iran Foreign Minister Pakistan maintains ‘delicate balancing act’ as it hosts Iran talks. Foreign ministers meet in Islamabad, seeking to de-e 2.6
#2 Iran Foreign Minister US-Israel war on Iran: What’s happening on day 30 of attacks?. Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt and Saudi 2.5
#3 Unknown Toddler rescued after US-Israeli strike on Iran. Rescue teams from the Iranian Red Crescent rescued a toddler from a des 1.8
#4 Donald Trump ‘Trump has to open the Strait of Hormuz’ with ground forces. Kenneth Katzman says US war objectives in Iran that cannot 1.4
#5 Unknown Thick plumes of smoke rise over Iraq’s Mosul after strikes. Thick plumes of smoke rise over Mosul after air strikes targ 1.4
#6 Unknown Funeral held for Lebanese journalists killed in Israeli strike. Hundreds gathered in Beirut’s southern suburbs for the f 1.1
#7 Unknown Iran’s IRGC claims attacks on UAE, Bahrain aluminium facilities. Iran targets Aluminium Bahrain, Emirates Global Alumini 0.9
#8 Unknown Pakistan hosts top Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian diplomats over war in Iran. Talks are under way in Islamabad, as the Pakista 0.5
#9 Unknown Analyst says that Iran’s interest is in an extended war. Rob Geist-Pinfold, says that the United States has an interest 0.0
#10 Donald Trump Pentagon readies ‘for weeks of US ground operations’ in Iran. Uncertainty looms over Trump's approval of the Pentagon's 0.0