WAR MONITOR

Geopolitical Sentinel v2.0 — 2026-05-30 23:15 ET
ORANGE
-40.4
升级偏向
GEOPOLITICAL SENTIMENT INDEX (-100 极度升级 → +100 停火在即)
冲突升级偏向明显。官员言论偏鹰派,市场定价冲突升级。建议降低风险敞口,关注能源对冲机会。

OVX/VIX 四象限

Q3 危机解除
触发条件OVX 回落 + VIX 回落
含义危机已过,积极进攻
操作建议加仓AI基建/半导体/港股

市场数据

57.8
OVX
原油波动率 — 地缘冲突温度计
15.3
VIX
恐慌指数 — >20紧张 >30恐慌
$92.1
布伦特原油
布伦特原油($/桶)
$4560
黄金
黄金($/盎司)— 避险之王
$87.4
WTI
WTI原油($/桶)
4.45%
10Y国债收益率
10Y国债收益率

GSI 子指数

行政层 Executive
-15.0
国会 Congressional
+0.0
市场 Market
-15.0
预测市场 Polymarket
-91.2
分歧度 Divergence 76.2

停火概率

30天
36.2%
60天
54.7%
90天
62.2%
(插值)
年底
69.7%

达利欧冲突阶段

子阶段冲突后峰值(强度下降)
轨迹未知
活跃战争类型W2_TECH_WAR、W4_GEOPOLITICAL、热战/军事冲突

异常告警

EXEC_vs_POLYMARKET Executive more dovish (-15) vs Polymarket more hawkish (-91)
MARKET_vs_POLYMARKET Market more dovish (-15) vs Polymarket more hawkish (-91)
POLYMARKET_UNUSUAL Unusual activity: 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?' volume=$2,549,424 with 55% weekly move
TIER1_REVERSAL Tier 1 signal reversal detected: recent=HAWK, prior=NEUTRAL→NEUTRAL

重要官员发言 (Top 10)

#1 特朗普(美国总统) Wait for Iran deal continues after Trump says he’ll make ‘final determination’ - NBC News. Wait for Iran deal continues 2.1
#2 新闻报道 / News Report US–Iran ceasefire talks strain amid missile strike and $300B plan uproar - MSN. US–Iran ceasefire talks strain amid miss 1.4
#3 新闻报道 / News Report Ukraine drones strike Russian oil facility, as Kyiv and Moscow trade blows. Strikes have seen 13,000 residents without p 1.0
#4 新闻报道 / News Report Iran war live: Lebanon accuses Israel of pursuing a ‘scorched earth policy’. Lebanese PM describes Israel's attacks as c 1.0
#5 新闻报道 / News Report Iran war live: Lebanon’s PM slams Israel attacks; US-Tehran deal in limbo. Lebanese PM describes Israel's attacks as col 1.0
#6 新闻报道 / News Report Looming Iran peace deal shows how Trump’s maximalist goals have shrunk - The Guardian. Looming Iran peace deal shows how 0.9
#7 新闻报道 / News Report What to watch for in the US-Iran memo to end the war - CNN. What to watch for in the US-Iran memo to end the war CNN 0.9
#8 新闻报道 / News Report U.S. still seeking ceasefire deal as Iran war enters 4th month - CBS News. U.S. still seeking ceasefire deal as Iran war 0.9
#9 新闻报道 / News Report IDF says it destroyed rocket launcher that Hezbollah used to attack Israel overnight - The Times of Israel. IDF says it 0.9
#10 新闻报道 / News Report US-Iran still at odds over key issues as ceasefire talks continue - The Business Standard. US-Iran still at odds over ke 0.9