地缘政治情报系统
战争监控
Geopolitical Sentinel v2.0 · 2026-05-30 11:00 UTC
系统说明
这份简报是什么？
这是一份自动生成的地缘政治情报简报，追踪美国-伊朗军事冲突的实时走向及其对投资的影响。
冲突背景：2026年2月28日，美国和以色列对伊朗核设施发动联合空袭，美伊正式进入热战状态。 伊朗反击打击了以色列和海湾国家目标，胡塞武装持续导弹攻击以色列。 霍尔木兹海峡通航受到严重威胁，布伦特原油从$75飙升至$100+，黄金突破$4500。 美国国内爆发900万人史上最大规模反战抗议。
这场冲突直接影响：油价、黄金、VIX、科技股估值、加密货币、航运成本、全球通胀预期。
冲突背景：2026年2月28日，美国和以色列对伊朗核设施发动联合空袭，美伊正式进入热战状态。 伊朗反击打击了以色列和海湾国家目标，胡塞武装持续导弹攻击以色列。 霍尔木兹海峡通航受到严重威胁，布伦特原油从$75飙升至$100+，黄金突破$4500。 美国国内爆发900万人史上最大规模反战抗议。
这场冲突直接影响：油价、黄金、VIX、科技股估值、加密货币、航运成本、全球通胀预期。
什么是「地缘冲突指数」(GSI)?
GSI（Geopolitical Sentiment Index，地缘冲突指数）是本系统的核心指标，范围从 -100（全面战争升级）到 +100（停火在即），0 = 中性。
它由4个子指数加权合成，每5分钟自动更新：
它由4个子指数加权合成，每5分钟自动更新：
| 子指数 | 权重 | 数据来源 | 衡量什么 |
| 行政层指数 | 30% | 总统/副总统/国务卿/国防部长/国安顾问等8位核心决策者的公开发言 | 决策层是在推动战争升级还是停火？AI对每条发言打分（-1到+1）后加权平均 |
| 国会指数 | 10% | 参众两院军事/情报/外交委员会主席及核心成员的发言 | 国会对战争的制约力度，如BETS OFF法案、战争授权投票。通常滞后行政层1-2周 |
| 市场指数 | 30% | OVX（原油波动率）、VIX（股市恐慌指数）、布伦特原油价格、黄金价格 | 交易员用真金白银表达的判断。市场信号通常领先官方表态2-3小时——最诚实的信号 |
| 预测市场指数 | 30% | Polymarket上24个伊朗/停火相关预测合约的实时赔率 | 全球交易者用真钱押注停火时间表。近期合约权重更高。最去中心化的集体智慧 |
GSI怎么读？
| GSI区间 | 含义 | 投资建议 |
| -100 到 -70 | 极度升级 | 最大防御：现金+黄金+短期国债。避免一切风险资产 |
| -70 到 -30 | 升级偏向 | 降低股票仓位，增配能源和避险资产 |
| -30 到 +30 | 方向不明 | 保持观望，仓位中性，等待明确信号 |
| +30 到 +70 | 缓和趋势 | 逐步增加风险敞口，关注停火后反弹标的 |
| +70 到 +100 | 停火在即 | 执行Q3切换：减持能源/黄金，加仓AI/科技/半导体 |
本系统每5分钟自动采集：白宫/国务院/国防部/CENTCOM官方声明、国会记录、
路透社/美联社/半岛电视台新闻、Polymarket预测市场赔率、OVX/VIX/原油/黄金市场数据。
通过AI（GLM-4-Flash）对每条官员发言进行鹰/鸽分类和打分，结合43位追踪官员的动态权重体系，
计算出综合的地缘冲突指数。
一、今日核心结论
升级偏向（GSI -36.6）| Q3 危机解除 | 布伦特原油 $92/桶 | OVX 58
冲突升级偏向明显。官员言论偏鹰派，市场正在为战争延续定价。建议降低股票仓位，增配能源（XLE/XOP）和避险资产（黄金/国债）。密切关注VIX是否突破30。
⚠️ 分歧警报（分歧度: 78）
行政层与市场定价出现严重分歧。当官员释放"鸽派"信号但市场持续"鹰派"定价时， 通常意味着信息不对称——市场可能已经获知官员尚未公开的信息，领先反应2-3小时。
行政层与市场定价出现严重分歧。当官员释放"鸽派"信号但市场持续"鹰派"定价时， 通常意味着信息不对称——市场可能已经获知官员尚未公开的信息，领先反应2-3小时。
二、地缘冲突指数（GSI）仪表盘
-36.6
升级偏向
GSI 计算公式
GSI = 行政层(-8.6) x 30% + 国会(+0.0) x 10% + 市场(-15.0) x 30% + 预测市场(-86.2) x 30%
= (-8.6 x 0.3) + (0.0 x 0.1) + (-15.0 x 0.3) + (-86.2 x 0.3) = -2.6 + 0.0 + -4.5 + -25.9 = -36.6
= (-8.6 x 0.3) + (0.0 x 0.1) + (-15.0 x 0.3) + (-86.2 x 0.3) = -2.6 + 0.0 + -4.5 + -25.9 = -36.6
权重说明：行政层30%（决策者意图）+ 国会10%（立法约束）+ 市场30%（资金流向）+ 预测市场30%（集体智慧）。如果没有采集到官员发言，行政层+国会的40%权重会平均分配给市场和预测市场（各+20%）。GSI范围：-100（全面战争升级）到 +100（停火在即）。< -30建议防御，> +30可逐步进攻。
行政层指数 (30%)
-8.6
追踪Tier 1-2决策者（总统/副总统/国务卿/国防部长/国安顾问/中东特使）的公开发言。计算方法：所有Tier 1-2发言的「方向分数 x 调整权重」加权平均值 x 100。正值=鸽派（停火/撤军言论多），负值=鹰派（军事升级言论多）。
市场指数 (30%)
-15.0
基于4个分量加总（满分±100）：OVX权重40% + VIX权重30% + 趋势权重15% + 原油权重15%。当前得分 -15.0。这是「真金白银」信号——交易员用资本投票比官员发言更诚实。
预测市场指数 (30%)
-86.2
基于Polymarket预测市场停火概率。计算：时间加权平均停火概率（近期合约权重更高），从0-100映射到-100至+100（50%=中性0分）。当前原始PMI=6.9% → 映射后-86.2。
市场指数计算明细
市场指数计算（满分±100）：
OVX分量（权重40%）：OVX=57.8 >= 45高位 → -30分
VIX分量（权重30%）：VIX=15.3 中间区域 → 0分
趋势分量（权重15%）：OVX趋势=下降，VIX趋势=下降
原油分量（权重15%）：Brent=$92 中间区域 → 0分
（阈值参考：<$80 = +10分 | $80-110 = 0分 | $110-130 = -8分 | >$130 = -15分）
OVX分量（权重40%）：OVX=57.8 >= 45高位 → -30分
VIX分量（权重30%）：VIX=15.3 中间区域 → 0分
趋势分量（权重15%）：OVX趋势=下降，VIX趋势=下降
原油分量（权重15%）：Brent=$92 中间区域 → 0分
（阈值参考：<$80 = +10分 | $80-110 = 0分 | $110-130 = -8分 | >$130 = -15分）
市场指数合计 = 各分量相加 = -15.0
分歧度
77.6
最大分歧来自 行政层(-8.6) 与 预测市场(-86.2)，差距 = 77.6
计算方法：4个子指数两两配对，取最大差距。> 30 = 信息不对称信号，> 60 = 极端分歧。当行政层与市场严重分歧时，市场通常是对的（领先2-3小时）。
三、GSI 走势图（历史趋势）
上图展示过去60天的GSI主指数走势（蓝色粗线）及4个子指数走势。背景色区间：红色=极度升级、橙色=升级偏向、黄色=方向不明、绿色=缓和趋势、蓝色=停火在即。下方副图为分歧度走势，超过30（橙色虚线）代表信息不对称信号。系统每5分钟新增一个数据点，持续运行后图表会越来越丰富。
四、OVX/VIX 四象限
Q3 危机解除
OVX: 57.8 | VIX: 15.3
触发条件：OVX 回落 + VIX 回落
原油波动率期限结构从倒挂转为正向，危机已过。这是停火后最重要的配置切换信号——积极进攻。
💡 操作建议：主题投资大年！重点加仓：AI基建（NVDA/AVGO/APLD）、半导体、光通信、港股互联网、机器人、存储/HBM。分三批建仓。
超配
科技成长AI基建
半导体
港股互联网
低配
传统能源（获利了结）防御板块
对冲
减少对冲卖出波动率
基于开源证券OVX/VIX四象限框架。OVX衡量原油ETF波动率（能源供应风险），VIX衡量标普500波动率（经济衰退风险）。象限阈值基于过去1年的75分位数。最有价值的信号是Q2→Q3切换（危机解除→积极进攻），这是整个系统最核心的配置切换时点。
五、市场快照
OVX 原油波动率
57.8
衡量未来30天原油价格预期波动幅度。> 45 = 极端能源压力。当前1年75分位数约44。当OVX和VIX同时飙升 = Q2系统性危机。OVX是地缘冲突最直接的温度计。
VIX 恐慌指数
15.3
标普500的「恐慌指标」。> 20 = 市场紧张，> 25 = 恐慌升温，> 30 = 极度恐慌。如果VIX随OVX一起上升，说明能源危机正在感染整个经济体——从局部危机升级为系统性危机。
布伦特原油
$92.1
国际原油基准价格（美元/桶）。直接反映战争溢价。> $100 = 供应压力明显，> $120 = 严重供应中断。如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，布伦特可能冲至$150以上。油价回落速度取决于海峡何时恢复正常通航。
黄金
$4560.5
避险资产之王（美元/盎司）。地缘不确定性越高，黄金越涨。达利欧说过：'战争中真正流通的硬通货是黄金——信用货币不被接受。'黄金是唯一没有对手方风险的资产。
六、重要情报（24小时）
#1
特朗普（美国总统）
决策层（总统/内阁） / Decision Makers | 影响力 Impact: 3.5 | 来源 Source: news_wire
US military conducts another strike against Iran after Trump says Iran is 'negotiating on fumes' - AP News. US military conducts another strike against Iran after Trump says Iran is 'negotiating on fumes' AP News
鹰派 — 倾向军事升级/强硬
/ Hawkish — military escalation/hardline rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: -0.30 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: -0.30 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#2
万斯（美国副总统）
决策层（总统/内阁） / Decision Makers | 影响力 Impact: 3.2 | 来源 Source: news_wire
Vance says US, Iran have made “a lot of progress” towards deal. US Vice President JD Vance says Washington and Tehran have made “a lot of progress” towards ceasefire
鸽派 — 倾向停火/缓和/撤军
/ Dovish — ceasefire/de-escalation/withdrawal rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: +0.30 （偏鸽/缓和） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: +0.30 （偏鸽/缓和） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#3
特朗普（美国总统）
决策层（总统/内阁） / Decision Makers | 影响力 Impact: 2.1 | 来源 Source: news_wire
Trump says he’ll make “final determination” on Iran deal after Situation Room meeting - MS NOW. Trump says he’ll make “final determination” on Iran deal after Situation Room meeting MS NOW
鹰派 — 倾向军事升级/强硬
/ Hawkish — military escalation/hardline rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#4
特朗普（美国总统）
决策层（总统/内阁） / Decision Makers | 影响力 Impact: 2.1 | 来源 Source: news_wire
Trump says ‘final determination’ to be made on possible Iran deal. Deep mistrust remains between Washington and Tehran as Iran says 'no final agreement' reached with US.
鹰派 — 倾向军事升级/强硬
/ Hawkish — military escalation/hardline rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#5
内塔尼亚胡（以色列总理）
媒体/外国官员 / Media/Foreign | 影响力 Impact: 2.1 | 来源 Source: news_wire
Netanyahu confirms troops crossed Litani, as Pentagon hosts Israeli-Lebanon security talks - The Times of Israel. Netanyahu confirms troops crossed Litani, as Pentagon hosts Israeli-Lebanon security talks The Times of Israel
鸽派 — 倾向停火/缓和/撤军
/ Dovish — ceasefire/de-escalation/withdrawal rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: +0.15 （偏鸽/缓和） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: +0.15 （偏鸽/缓和） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#6
Pentagon Press Secretary
军方高层 / Senior Military | 影响力 Impact: 2.1 | 来源 Source: dod_briefings
Hegseth Outlines U.S. Vision For Indo-Pacific at Annual Asia Defense Summit. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth discussed the strategic vision for the Indo-Pacific region, as it relates to the new National Defense Strategy, during remarks at the annual International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangr
鸽派 — 倾向停火/缓和/撤军
/ Dovish — ceasefire/de-escalation/withdrawal rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: +0.15 （偏鸽/缓和） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: +0.15 （偏鸽/缓和） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#7
特朗普（美国总统）
决策层（总统/内阁） / Decision Makers | 影响力 Impact: 2.0 | 来源 Source: foreign
Trump says US naval blockade on Iran 'will now be lifted' — as he heads to Situation Room for 'final determination' - New York Post. Trump says US naval blockade on Iran 'will now be lifted' — as he heads to Situation Room for 'final determination' New York Post
鹰派 — 倾向军事升级/强硬
/ Hawkish — military escalation/hardline rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#8
特朗普（美国总统）
决策层（总统/内阁） / Decision Makers | 影响力 Impact: 1.9 | 来源 Source: news_wire
Oil prices fall after Trump says he will make final determination on Iran deal - cnbc.com. Oil prices fall after Trump says he will make final determination on Iran deal cnbc.com
鹰派 — 倾向军事升级/强硬
/ Hawkish — military escalation/hardline rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#9
特朗普（美国总统）
决策层（总统/内阁） / Decision Makers | 影响力 Impact: 1.9 | 来源 Source: news_wire
Oil prices fall after Trump says he will make final determination on Iran deal - CNBC. Oil prices fall after Trump says he will make final determination on Iran deal CNBC
鹰派 — 倾向军事升级/强硬
/ Hawkish — military escalation/hardline rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
#10
特朗普（美国总统）
决策层（总统/内阁） / Decision Makers | 影响力 Impact: 1.9 | 来源 Source: news_wire
Trump says ‘final determination’ to be made on possible Iran deal. Deep mistrust remains between Washington and Tehran as Iran's top negotiator urges action, not words.
鹰派 — 倾向军事升级/强硬
/ Hawkish — military escalation/hardline rhetoric
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
方向分数 Direction: -0.15 （偏鹰/升级） | 评分范围：-1.0 全面战争升级 ↔ +1.0 即将停火
影响力计算方法
影响力 = 调整后权重 x |方向分数|
调整后权重 = 基础权重 x 时效性 x 场合 x 一致性 x 反转信号
时效性：6小时内=1.5倍 | 6-24小时=1.2倍 | 1-3天=1.0倍 | 3-7天=0.7倍 | >7天=0.3倍
场合：国会作证=1.3倍 | 白宫/国务院=1.2倍 | 国防部=1.1倍 | 社交媒体=1.0倍 | 媒体采访=0.9倍
反转信号：鹰派→鸽派反转=2.0倍（最强信号！说明决策者立场变化）
Tier权重：总统10.0 | 国务卿/国防部长9.5 | 国安顾问9.5 | 副总统8.5 | 参联会主席8.5 | 委员会主席7.5 | 外国元首6.0
调整后权重 = 基础权重 x 时效性 x 场合 x 一致性 x 反转信号
时效性：6小时内=1.5倍 | 6-24小时=1.2倍 | 1-3天=1.0倍 | 3-7天=0.7倍 | >7天=0.3倍
场合：国会作证=1.3倍 | 白宫/国务院=1.2倍 | 国防部=1.1倍 | 社交媒体=1.0倍 | 媒体采访=0.9倍
反转信号：鹰派→鸽派反转=2.0倍（最强信号！说明决策者立场变化）
Tier权重：总统10.0 | 国务卿/国防部长9.5 | 国安顾问9.5 | 副总统8.5 | 参联会主席8.5 | 委员会主席7.5 | 外国元首6.0
七、停火概率
30天内
39.5%
最近期，信号价值最高。如果这个数字上升，停火已经迫在眉睫。
60天内
55.5%
中期：交易量最活跃的时间窗口，代表市场共识时间表。
90天内
66.5%
（60天+年底插值）
如果30/60天很低但90天较高，说明市场预期停火会延迟但最终会到来。
年底前
77.5%
长期底线。如果连年底的概率都很低，说明市场预期冲突将长期持续。
模型修正：GSI动量 +0.001 | 发言情绪 +0.000
（正值 = 提升停火概率，负值 = 降低停火概率）
停火概率来自Polymarket预测市场。这些是真金白银的押注——交易者用自己的钱下注，因此这是最无偏差的集体智慧信号。近期合约在我们的PMI计算中获得指数级更高的权重。我们的模型在Polymarket原始赔率基础上，根据GSI趋势（±10%）和官员发言情绪（±10%）进行修正。
实时预测市场（按交易量排序）
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$8,447,370
3.5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
$5,005,130
100.0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
$2,393,438
16.5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
$1,206,900
14.5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$838,406
4.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
$623,884
7.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$593,076
33.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$559,155
0.4%
八、信号矛盾警报
什么是信号矛盾？
我们追踪4个信号源：行政层发言、国会发言、金融市场、预测市场。
正常情况下，它们方向一致。当出现严重分歧时，说明有一方可能掌握了其他方不知道的信息。
经验法则：当官员说「我们要停火」但市场却在疯狂买入黄金和VIX，
通常说明市场已经获知了官员还没公开的坏消息——市场领先官方表态2-3小时。
分歧度：0-30 = 正常 | 30-40 = 值得注意 | 40-60 = 严重矛盾 | 60+ = 极端信息不对称
正常情况下，它们方向一致。当出现严重分歧时，说明有一方可能掌握了其他方不知道的信息。
经验法则：当官员说「我们要停火」但市场却在疯狂买入黄金和VIX，
通常说明市场已经获知了官员还没公开的坏消息——市场领先官方表态2-3小时。
分歧度：0-30 = 正常 | 30-40 = 值得注意 | 40-60 = 严重矛盾 | 60+ = 极端信息不对称
行政层 vs 预测市场
🔴 严重 · 分歧度 78/100
行政层（指数 -9）认为局势在缓和，但预测市场（指数 -86）认为局势在升级。两者差距达到 78 分。
💡 含义：有一方掌握了另一方不知道的信息。历史上，市场信号通常是对的。
💡 含义：有一方掌握了另一方不知道的信息。历史上，市场信号通常是对的。
市场 vs 预测市场
🔴 严重 · 分歧度 71/100
市场（指数 -15）认为局势在缓和，但预测市场（指数 -86）认为局势在升级。两者差距达到 71 分。
💡 含义：有一方掌握了另一方不知道的信息。历史上，市场信号通常是对的。
💡 含义：有一方掌握了另一方不知道的信息。历史上，市场信号通常是对的。
预测市场异常交易
🟠 较高
Polymarket预测市场出现异常大额交易活动，可能有知情人士在下注。
九、达利欧第六阶段评估
第6阶段
POST PEAK CONFLICT
轨迹：混合
热战阶段但烈度可能已见顶。关注双方疲劳和耗损信号。
W1 贸易/经济战
关税、制裁、禁运、经济封锁
影响：油价、航运成本、通胀预期
关税、制裁、禁运、经济封锁
影响：油价、航运成本、通胀预期
W4 地缘政治战
外交博弈、联盟重组、领土争端
影响：航运保险、区域货币
外交博弈、联盟重组、领土争端
影响：航运保险、区域货币
W5 军事热战
空袭、导弹打击、部队部署
影响：油价、VIX/OVX、避险资产全面联动
空袭、导弹打击、部队部署
影响：油价、VIX/OVX、避险资产全面联动
基于达利欧《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》第六章框架。五种战争形态从W1（贸易战）逐步升级至W5（军事热战）。第六阶段 = '极度混乱，没有规则，强权即真理'——1945年以来的世界秩序已正式崩溃。当前美伊冲突中，五种战争中的四种正在同时进行。达利欧核心原则：'战争绝不会按计划发展'、'承受痛苦的意志力有时比杀伤力更重要'。
十、完整发言记录（24小时）
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
US military conducts another strike against Iran after Trump says Iran is 'negotiating on fumes' - AP News. US military conducts another strike against Iran after Trump says Iran is 'negotiating on fumes' AP News
万斯（美国副总统）
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Vance says US, Iran have made “a lot of progress” towards deal. US Vice President JD Vance says Washington and Tehran have made “a lot of progress” towards ceasefire
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Trump says he’ll make “final determination” on Iran deal after Situation Room meeting - MS NOW. Trump says he’ll make “final determination” on Iran deal after Situation Room meeting MS NOW
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Trump says ‘final determination’ to be made on possible Iran deal. Deep mistrust remains between Washington and Tehran as Iran says 'no final agreement' reached with US.
内塔尼亚胡（以色列总理）
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Netanyahu confirms troops crossed Litani, as Pentagon hosts Israeli-Lebanon security talks - The Times of Israel. Netanyahu confirms troops crossed Litani, as Pentagon hosts Israeli-Lebanon security talks The Times of Israel
Pentagon Press Secretary
🟢鸽 | dod_briefings
Hegseth Outlines U.S. Vision For Indo-Pacific at Annual Asia Defense Summit. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth discussed the strategic vision for the Indo-Pacific region, as it relates to the new National Defense Strategy, during remarks at the annual International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangr
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | foreign
Trump says US naval blockade on Iran 'will now be lifted' — as he heads to Situation Room for 'final determination' - New York Post. Trump says US naval blockade on Iran 'will now be lifted' — as he heads to Situation Room for 'final determination' New York Post
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Oil prices fall after Trump says he will make final determination on Iran deal - cnbc.com. Oil prices fall after Trump says he will make final determination on Iran deal cnbc.com
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Oil prices fall after Trump says he will make final determination on Iran deal - CNBC. Oil prices fall after Trump says he will make final determination on Iran deal CNBC
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Trump says ‘final determination’ to be made on possible Iran deal. Deep mistrust remains between Washington and Tehran as Iran's top negotiator urges action, not words.
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Trump says ‘final determination’ to be made on possible Iran deal - Al Jazeera. Trump says ‘final determination’ to be made on possible Iran deal Al Jazeera
特朗普（美国总统）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Trump heads into Situation Room to potentially finalise Iran deal. Donald Trump says he’s in the Situation Room at the White House to make a “final determination” on a deal with Iran.
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks - WPEC. New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks WPEC
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks - KSNV. New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks KSNV
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks - WTVC. New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks WTVC
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks - KVII. New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks KVII
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Iran condemns US strikes as a show of 'bad faith' and warns of consequences - Scripps News. Iran condemns US strikes as a show of 'bad faith' and warns of consequences Scripps News
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
US and Iranian negotiators reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks - AP News. US and Iranian negotiators reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks AP News
外媒报道 / Foreign Media
🟢鸽 | foreign
Iran rejects Trump’s ceasefire push, says 'no final understanding reached' - India.Com. Iran rejects Trump’s ceasefire push, says 'no final understanding reached' India.Com
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Ceasefire between US and Iran still in place as American military stays alert - WDRB. Ceasefire between US and Iran still in place as American military stays alert WDRB
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Trump claims to be on verge of approving peace deal with major Iranian concessions - The Guardian. Trump claims to be on verge of approving peace deal with major Iranian concessions The Guardian
内塔尼亚胡（以色列总理）
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Netanyahu says Israeli forces have crossed Lebanon’s Litani River. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River in southern Lebanon.
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Rubio reports 'slight progress' in Iran talks as Pakistan renews efforts to mediate a peace deal - AP News. Rubio reports 'slight progress' in Iran talks as Pakistan renews efforts to mediate a peace deal AP News
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Ukraine drones strike Russian oil facility, as Kyiv and Moscow trade blows. Strikes have seen 13,000 residents without power in Zaporizhzhia as Russia and Ukraine trade drone attacks.
外媒报道 / Foreign Media
🔴鹰 | foreign
Iran slams US ‘self-defence strikes’ amid peace talks, says exposes Washington’s “dishonesty and unreliability” - Rising Kashmir. Iran slams US ‘self-defence strikes’ amid peace talks, says exposes Washington’s “dishonesty and unreliability” Rising Kashmir
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Trump to Make Final Decision Iran Ceasefire, Including Hormuz Opening - Marine News Magazine. Trump to Make Final Decision Iran Ceasefire, Including Hormuz Opening Marine News Magazine
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
What to watch for in the US-Iran memo to end the war - CNN. What to watch for in the US-Iran memo to end the war CNN
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
The Latest: US and Iranian reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks - WRAL. The Latest: US and Iranian reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks WRAL
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Exclusive | The U.A.E.’s Secret Role in the War Involved Dozens of Strikes on Iran - WSJ. Exclusive | The U.A.E.’s Secret Role in the War Involved Dozens of Strikes on Iran WSJ
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
UAE conducted dozens of strikes on Iran during war and after truce, including with Israel -- report - The Times of Israel. UAE conducted dozens of strikes on Iran during war and after truce, including with Israel -- report The Times of Israel
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Israeli fighter jets strike village in south Lebanon. Video shows the moment Israeli fighter jets struck a residential building in Ain Qana village in southern Lebanon.
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Romania to expel Russian consul after residential drone strike. Romanian President Nicusor Dan says that the Russian consul in the southeastern city of Constanta will be expelled.
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Israeli attacks kill 14 in Lebanon as Pentagon hosts security talks. Israeli forces advance across Lebanon's Litani River as Lebanese and Israeli military delegations meet in the US.
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Trump deliberates 'final determination' on US-Iran ceasefire deal - KCCI. Trump deliberates 'final determination' on US-Iran ceasefire deal KCCI
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Latest news on deal talks to extend U.S.-Iran ceasefire - CBS News. Latest news on deal talks to extend U.S.-Iran ceasefire CBS News
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
U.S. and Iranian negotiators reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks - PBS. U.S. and Iranian negotiators reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks PBS
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Five killed in Lebanon as Israeli forces advance across key Litani River. Attacks come ahead of security talks between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations at the Pentagon.
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks - KTXS. New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks KTXS
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks - KIMA. New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks KIMA
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks - KOMO. New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks KOMO
外媒报道 / Foreign Media
🟢鸽 | foreign
Iran disputes Trump’s claims on ceasefire deal as US awaits final sign-off - The New Indian Express. Iran disputes Trump’s claims on ceasefire deal as US awaits final sign-off The New Indian Express
外媒报道 / Foreign Media
🔴鹰 | foreign
Iran may attack if US naval blockade lasts too long, Khamenei adviser warns | Iran International - ایران اینترنشنال. Iran may attack if US naval blockade lasts too long, Khamenei adviser warns | Iran International ایران اینترنشنال
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks - KRCR. New ceasefire proposal could open door to US-Iran nuclear talks KRCR
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
US and Iran may have reached deal to end war as fragile ceasefire nears collapse - AL.com. US and Iran may have reached deal to end war as fragile ceasefire nears collapse AL.com
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Iran denies ceasefire deal with US is “finalised”. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei says that an agreement with the US “has not been finalised yet."
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Trump pledges to withdraw from Kennedy Center after court strikes his name. Judge Christopher Cooper ruled against Trump's bid to add his name to the building and close the theatre for two years.
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
No Red Lines, No Deal: Trump's Iran Meet Ends Without "Final Determination" - NDTV. No Red Lines, No Deal: Trump's Iran Meet Ends Without "Final Determination" NDTV
新闻报道 / News Report
🟢鸽 | news_wire
Israeli soldiers share rare accounts from Gaza, describing ongoing killings despite the ceasefire - AP News. Israeli soldiers share rare accounts from Gaza, describing ongoing killings despite the ceasefire AP News
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Iran denounces US strikes as a sign of bad faith, with impact on peace talks unclear - Scripps News. Iran denounces US strikes as a sign of bad faith, with impact on peace talks unclear Scripps News
新闻报道 / News Report
🔴鹰 | news_wire
Damage seen in northern Israel after Hezbollah launches rocket barrages. Israel says it has intercepted an air attack from Hezbollah on Saturday, May 30th.