WAR MONITOR

Geopolitical Sentinel v2.0 — 2026-06-17 02:11 ET
YELLOW
-28.0
方向不明
GEOPOLITICAL SENTIMENT INDEX (-100 极度升级 → +100 停火在即)
信号混合,多空因素交织,方向不明确。建议维持均衡配置,等待方向明朗后再调整。

OVX/VIX 四象限

Q3 危机解除
触发条件OVX 回落 + VIX 回落
含义危机已过,积极进攻
操作建议加仓AI基建/半导体/港股

市场数据

53.1
OVX
原油波动率 — 地缘冲突温度计
16.4
VIX
恐慌指数 — >20紧张 >30恐慌
$78.6
布伦特原油
布伦特原油($/桶)
$4352
黄金
黄金($/盎司)— 避险之王
$75.0
WTI
WTI原油($/桶)
4.49%
10Y国债收益率
10Y国债收益率

GSI 子指数

行政层 Executive
-39.9
国会 Congressional
+0.0
市场 Market
-5.0
预测市场 Polymarket
-39.0
分歧度 Divergence 34.9

停火概率

30天
54.2%
60天
53.0%
截至2026-05-31
90天
71.1%
(插值)
年底
89.2%

达利欧冲突阶段

子阶段冲突后峰值(强度下降)
轨迹未知
活跃战争类型W4_GEOPOLITICAL、热战/军事冲突

异常告警

EXEC_vs_MARKET Executive more hawkish (-40) vs Market more dovish (-5)
MARKET_vs_POLYMARKET Market more dovish (-5) vs Polymarket more hawkish (-39)
POLYMARKET_UNUSUAL Unusual activity: 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?' volume=$18,662,633 with 95% weekly move
TIER1_REVERSAL Tier 1 signal reversal detected: recent=HAWK, prior=HAWK→HAWK

重要官员发言 (Top 10)

#1 特朗普(美国总统) Trump warns ‘all hell will rain down’ if Iran tries to get a nuclear weapon - Al Jazeera. Trump warns ‘all hell will rai 10.1
#2 特朗普(美国总统) Trump says ‘hell will rain down’ if Iran gets nuclear weapons. Trump says ‘hell will rain down’ if Iran gets nuclear wea 9.2
#3 特朗普(美国总统) Trump warns ‘all hell will rain down’ if Iran tries to get a nuclear weapon. US president also made unusually critical c 7.3
#4 特朗普(美国总统) Trump tells Netanyahu to be ‘more responsible with respect to Lebanon’. US president also made unusually critical commen 6.9
#5 特朗普(美国总统) Trump says Iran deal to be public soon and will rule out nuclear weapon for Tehran - Reuters. Trump says Iran deal to be 5.5
#6 特朗普(美国总统) Opinion | Trump told Iranians to keep protesting. Then he never sent the help he promised. - MS NOW. Opinion | Trump tol 4.3
#7 万斯(美国副总统) Trump may release US-Iran deal before Friday, Vance says - BBC. Trump may release US-Iran deal before Friday, Vance says 3.9
#8 特朗普(美国总统) US lawmakers in the dark on Iran deal as Trump says he will send it to Congress - The Times of Israel. US lawmakers in t 3.5
#9 外媒报道 / Foreign Media Araghchi says Iran-US talks to resume after MoU signing - ایران اینترنشنال. Araghchi says Iran-US talks to resume after 2.0
#10 新闻报道 / News Report The US-Iran Ceasefire Shows that War Doesn't Work - globaldispatches.org. The US-Iran Ceasefire Shows that War Doesn't W 1.8